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Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse revised his CLARITY Act passage forecast for the second time in two months on April 13, telling an audience at the Semafor World Economy Summit in Washington that he expects the bill to pass by the end of May. He described himself as less optimistic than before. The shift in tone matters as much as the shift in timeline.
The record
Garlinghouse appeared on Fox Business's Mornings with Maria on February 19 and placed an 80% probability on the CLARITY Act being signed into law by the end of April. His reasoning at the time: White House engagement was strong, the March 1 deadline for a stablecoin yield compromise was approaching, and both crypto and traditional finance executives were converging on Washington for meetings that suggested political momentum was building.
On March 27, at the FII Priority Miami Summit, Garlinghouse revised his forecast to the end of May. He had visited Washington two days before the panel and came back with a different read. He described himself as having no significant stake in the stablecoin yield dispute, distancing Ripple from the specific provision that had generated the most friction between banks and crypto platforms. He suggested that negotiating fatigue would eventually produce a compromise, framing exhaustion as the mechanism for resolution rather than consensus.
He repeated the end-of-May target at the Semafor World Economy Summit on April 13 — the same day the Senate returned from its Easter recess. His language was notably more qualified than in February. He told the audience that he was not as optimistic as he once was while still maintaining that an agreement was close. He described the negotiations as having reached peak frustration, which he said was the condition under which compromise becomes possible.
On April 15, Garlinghouse posted on X after meetings with Senators Hagerty, Moreno, Scott, and Boozman, and White House crypto coordinator Patrick Witt. He wrote that the conversations had left him certain they were closer than ever. The post marked his eleventh year at Ripple.
What the industry coalition looks like now
The coalition backing the bill is stronger today than it was when Garlinghouse made his February prediction. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reversed his opposition, following a Wall Street Journal op-ed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling on Congress to act.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins and former White House crypto czar David Sacks both endorsed the bill in coordinated statements. As FinTech Weekly mapped, the composition of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) reflects the same direction. The obstacles that allowed two prior markup cancellations to be explained by substantive disagreement have largely dissolved.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott told Fox Business on April 14 that the markup may not happen in April. He named three remaining issues: stablecoin yield language, DeFi provisions, and securing all Republican votes on the committee. He said each could be resolved within two weeks. That arithmetic points to early May at the earliest for a markup date, which then needs to produce a committee vote before the five remaining legislative steps can begin.
Those five steps — committee markup and vote, a full Senate floor vote requiring 60 votes and therefore meaningful Democratic support, reconciliation with the Agriculture Committee version, reconciliation with the House-passed bill from July 2025, and presidential signature — have not changed. Each requires time the calendar is running out of.
The gap between advocacy and probability
The contrast between industry language and independent assessments has widened considerably. Garlinghouse's public communications — from his February television appearance through his April 15 X post — describe a bill that is perpetually close to done.
Polymarket odds have fallen to 66%. Senator Lummis has warned publicly that failure to pass the CLARITY Act this year means the industry waits until at least 2030. Senator Moreno has said the same, more directly.
As FinTech Weekly reported before the Easter recess, the clock has not changed. What changed is the bill's political packaging — the obstacles are now procedural and calendrical rather than substantive.
Garlinghouse's revised timeline and softened language reflect that reality more accurately than his February forecast did.
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